25 years of the IBM PC.
It's the second computer architecture I ever used knowingly - the first was the Sinclair ZX-series of computers, known and loved thoughout the UK.
What made it special was that it was generalised, built from off-the-shelf components. A powerful, cheap, commodity computer which you knew would have software support for it because of the name behind it.
People often play the "If IBM had known" game... But to be honest, I think IBM wouldn't have minded clones on the desktop. I think what galled them was seeing IBM PCs used as SERVERS. If at the time of release you'd shown them Microsoft and Novell in the late eighties, Novell would have been the one to make them kill the IBM PC at birth...
And now, 25 years later, we have to admit that they're pretty good at being servers. Granted, they took a long time to get good at it, but they're running the infrastructures of hundreds of thousands of organisations worldwide.
The general purpose computing thing seems to have worked out fairly well for gaming, too. It's expensive to buy a good PC gaming rig, but it will play some fantastic games. Microsoft's first attempt at a console was almost a PC, and the high-end PC has more grunt than even some of the next-generation consoles we're waiting for.
Those are just two areas that I think nobody, looking at the first IBM PC, would ever have dreamed it would be successful in.
So what's for the next 25 years?
Well, I don't think it will die. The architecture is just too popular and available for that.
But I am sensing a slight shift in the industry towards platform neutrality. Java and .NET both promise platform neutrality, at heart. Linux and BSD are finally delivering that platform-neutral OS thing to real people on real hardware, rather than just on expensive super-computers. And open standards in data formats mean that even the program you use is becoming less important these days.
The IBM PC architecture will hit 50. I'm confident of that. It might not be very recognisable, but it will hit that mark.
I just wonder if some cheaper, smaller, more integrated platform might not come along and carve a niche out using these hardware-independent technologies.
Happy Birthday, IBM PC! Beware the ides of commodity!
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philipstorry August 12th, 2006 17:05:00
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